By Dr. Fabio Cresto Aleina
Current discourse
WRI recently published a fundamental report on the state of climate action, in which researchers showed that of all indicators used to measure progress towards 2030 climate targets, only one is on track (share of electric vehicles sold per year). The majority of the other indicators are far off track. These other indicators include lowering the share of coal in electricity (goal of 4%, current levels approximately 36%); reducing the annual rate of gross deforestation (goal of 1.9 Mha per year, current levels approximately 5.8 Mha per year); increasing global climate finance flows (goal of US$5.2 trillion per year, current levels approximately US$850 billion per year).
Despite many climate commitments and declarations regarding climate targets, climate action has not progressed as hoped. Certain indicators have even worsened in recent years.
Global Stocktake and the status of climate action
In September 2023, the United Nations published the first two-year assessment of global progress in slowing down climate change, called the Global Stocktake. The stocktake is the first of its kind, and slated to be repeated every 5 years. The report showed that while the worldwide temperature increase is decelerating, the international community is not on track to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. Trillions of additional dollars are needed to limit warming to the Paris goal of 1.5 °C. The analysis will likely be a key technical basis for all discussions to be held in Dubai at COP28.
Lack of trust and transparency in financial flows
In light of the GST technical report and the two UNEP Gap Reports for Adaptation and Mitigation, worldwide financial flows need to change drastically in order to address climate challenges. The Adaptation Gap Report suggested that the amount of funds needed to cover the world’s adaptation needs is in the range of US$215-387 billion per year, in stark contrast to the US$21 billion disbursed in 2021 for climate adaptation-related projects. Moreover, the amount disbursed does not consider the needs of LICs and LMICs regarding L&D, which are estimated to require approximately US$290 to US$580 billion by 2030.
Advocates also find the general sense of lack of trust in the commitments made by HICs in past climate conferences concerning, especially regarding financial issues. The failed promises to deliver US$100 billion in climate finance by 2020, despite claims by HICs that the goal has been met, imply that COP28 needs to be the place to explicitly define financial channels to ensure a flow of money to where it is most needed, particularly to communities on the front line of climate impacts. Many LICs and LMICs advocate for parity between adaptation and mitigation finance, hoping that COP28 will accelerate the proposed reforms to the global financial architecture.
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